We publish no single base value for T. Rowe Price. Our valuation methods put it between $81.48 and $120.47 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $120.47 | +11.3% | free cash flow $1.47bn, growth 5.9% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 10.98%; plus net cash $15.71 a share; stress floor $86.48 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $81.48 | -24.7% | earnings per share $10.29 valued at 10.56× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.44 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.14) |
| Peer beta | 1.49 (median of 11 S&P 500 Asset Management & Custody Banks companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.45 (77% own, 23% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.30 (0.67 × 1.45 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 10.98% |
Free cash flow grows 5.90% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.47bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 5.90% | $1.56bn | 0.9011 | $1.40bn |
| Year 2 | 5.90% | $1.65bn | 0.8119 | $1.34bn |
| Year 3 | 5.90% | $1.74bn | 0.7316 | $1.28bn |
| Year 4 | 5.90% | $1.85bn | 0.6592 | $1.22bn |
| Year 5 | 5.90% | $1.96bn | 0.5940 | $1.16bn |
| Year 6 | 5.42% | $2.06bn | 0.5352 | $1.10bn |
| Year 7 | 4.93% | $2.16bn | 0.4823 | $1.04bn |
| Year 8 | 4.45% | $2.26bn | 0.4346 | $982.17m |
| Year 9 | 3.97% | $2.35bn | 0.3916 | $920.10m |
| Year 10 | 3.48% | $2.43bn | 0.3528 | $857.95m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (10.98% − 3%) | $31.39bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $11.07bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $11.30bn |
| Total present value | $22.38bn |
| Shares outstanding | 213.60m |
| Cash flows per share = total ÷ shares | $104.76 |
| Plus net cash per share | $15.71 |
| Value per share | $120.47 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 0.9% | Growth 5.9% | Growth 10.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.98% | $105.37 | $136.01 | — |
| 10.98% | $94.40 | $120.47 | — |
| 11.98% | $85.87 | $108.41 | — |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.44 | 11.61% | $112.54 |
| Peer beta | 1.49 | 11.84% | $109.98 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.30 | 10.98% | $120.47 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $10.29 |
| Year 1 | 5.90% | $10.90 |
| Year 2 | 5.18% | $11.46 |
| Year 3 | 4.63% | $11.99 |
| Year 4 | 4.22% | $12.50 |
| Year 5 | 3.92% | $12.99 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $12.99 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 10.56× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $137.18 |
| Discounted at 10.98% over 5 years: ÷ 1.6835 | $81.48 |
We publish no single base value for T. Rowe Price. Our valuation methods put it between $81.48 and $120.47 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $87.99 and a 10% chance it is above $157.02 in a year; a 64% chance it is higher than today's $108.22, from 22.48% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 10.98% a year.
At $108.22 the price implies free cash flow growing 3.7% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 5.9%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $104.62 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $105.16 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $100.97 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $104.20 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $103.90 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $108.41 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $108.22 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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