We publish no single base value for Tyson Foods. Our valuation methods put it between $37.19 and $75.87 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $75.87 | +28.0% | free cash flow $1.16bn, growth -0.1% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 7.56%; stress floor $53.51 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $37.19 | -37.2% | earnings per share $3.51 valued at 14.33× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.38 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.20) |
| Peer beta | 0.26 (median of 7 S&P 500 Packaged Foods & Meats companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.32 (49% own, 51% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.54 (0.67 × 0.32 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 7.56% |
Free cash flow grows -0.10% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.16bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | -0.10% | $1.16bn | 0.9297 | $1.08bn |
| Year 2 | -0.10% | $1.16bn | 0.8644 | $1.00bn |
| Year 3 | -0.10% | $1.16bn | 0.8036 | $930.20m |
| Year 4 | -0.10% | $1.16bn | 0.7471 | $863.95m |
| Year 5 | -0.10% | $1.16bn | 0.6946 | $802.43m |
| Year 6 | 0.42% | $1.16bn | 0.6458 | $749.14m |
| Year 7 | 0.93% | $1.17bn | 0.6004 | $702.98m |
| Year 8 | 1.45% | $1.19bn | 0.5582 | $663.05m |
| Year 9 | 1.97% | $1.21bn | 0.5190 | $628.57m |
| Year 10 | 2.48% | $1.24bn | 0.4825 | $598.90m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (7.56% − 3%) | $28.04bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $13.53bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $8.02bn |
| Total present value | $21.55bn |
| Shares outstanding | 284.00m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $75.87 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -5.1% | Growth -0.1% | Growth 4.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.56% | $69.30 | $96.57 | — |
| 7.56% | $55.08 | $75.87 | $104.06 |
| 8.56% | $45.94 | $62.59 | $85.06 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.38 | 6.84% | $89.69 |
| Peer beta | 0.26 | 6.30% | $104.00 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.54 | 7.56% | $75.87 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $3.51 |
| Year 1 | -0.10% | $3.50 |
| Year 2 | 0.83% | $3.53 |
| Year 3 | 1.48% | $3.58 |
| Year 4 | 1.94% | $3.65 |
| Year 5 | 2.26% | $3.74 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $3.74 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 14.33× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $53.53 |
| Discounted at 7.56% over 5 years: ÷ 1.4396 | $37.19 |
We publish no single base value for Tyson Foods. Our valuation methods put it between $37.19 and $75.87 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $44.92 and a 10% chance it is above $85.15 in a year; a 57% chance it is higher than today's $59.26, from 24.82% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 7.56% a year.
At $59.26 the price implies free cash flow growing -4.0% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown -0.1%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $51.89 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $53.43 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $54.90 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $56.70 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $57.04 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $59.68 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $59.26 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Jun 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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