We publish no single base value for Twilio. Our valuation methods put it between $238.02 and $293.68 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $293.68 | +38.4% | free cash flow $1.20bn, growth 19.1% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 9.9%; plus net cash $12.73 a share; stress floor $136.27 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $238.02 | +12.2% | earnings per share $6.16 valued at 35.39× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.49 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.45) |
| Peer beta | 1.04 (median of 6 S&P 500 Systems Software companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.08 (9% own, 91% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.06 (0.67 × 1.08 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 9.90% |
Free cash flow grows 19.10% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.20bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 19.10% | $1.43bn | 0.9099 | $1.30bn |
| Year 2 | 19.10% | $1.70bn | 0.8280 | $1.41bn |
| Year 3 | 19.10% | $2.02bn | 0.7534 | $1.53bn |
| Year 4 | 19.10% | $2.41bn | 0.6855 | $1.65bn |
| Year 5 | 19.10% | $2.87bn | 0.6238 | $1.79bn |
| Year 6 | 16.42% | $3.34bn | 0.5676 | $1.90bn |
| Year 7 | 13.73% | $3.80bn | 0.5164 | $1.96bn |
| Year 8 | 11.05% | $4.22bn | 0.4699 | $1.98bn |
| Year 9 | 8.37% | $4.58bn | 0.4276 | $1.96bn |
| Year 10 | 5.68% | $4.84bn | 0.3891 | $1.88bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (9.90% − 3%) | $72.18bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $28.08bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $17.36bn |
| Total present value | $45.44bn |
| Shares outstanding | 161.75m |
| Cash flows per share = total ÷ shares | $280.94 |
| Plus net cash per share | $12.73 |
| Value per share | $293.68 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 14.1% | Growth 19.1% | Growth 24.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.90% | $263.79 | $348.48 | $459.08 |
| 9.90% | $224.00 | $293.67 | $384.42 |
| 10.90% | $194.45 | $253.05 | $329.16 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.49 | 11.84% | $223.61 |
| Peer beta | 1.04 | 9.81% | $297.93 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.06 | 9.90% | $293.67 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $6.16 |
| Year 1 | 19.10% | $7.34 |
| Year 2 | 14.27% | $8.38 |
| Year 3 | 10.89% | $9.30 |
| Year 4 | 8.52% | $10.09 |
| Year 5 | 6.87% | $10.78 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $10.78 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 35.39× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $381.59 |
| Discounted at 9.90% over 5 years: ÷ 1.6032 | $238.02 |
We publish no single base value for Twilio. Our valuation methods put it between $238.02 and $293.68 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $78.68 and a 10% chance it is above $440.95 in a year; a 43% chance it is higher than today's $212.21, from 66.9% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.9% a year.
At $212.21 the price implies free cash flow growing 13.1% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 19.1%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 2026 | $244.37 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $261.79 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $205.03 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $202.02 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $212.21 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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