We publish no single base value for Texas Instruments. Our valuation methods put it between $222.49 and $268.22 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $268.22 | -14.2% | free cash flow $7.32bn, growth 20.27% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 11.07%; stress floor $119.64 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $222.49 | -28.8% | earnings per share $9.06 valued at 23.98× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.39 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.23) |
| Peer beta | 1.83 (median of 14 S&P 500 Semiconductors companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.48 (79% own, 21% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.32 (0.67 × 1.48 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 11.07% |
Free cash flow grows 20.27% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $7.32bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 20.27% | $8.80bn | 0.9003 | $7.92bn |
| Year 2 | 20.27% | $10.59bn | 0.8106 | $8.58bn |
| Year 3 | 20.27% | $12.73bn | 0.7298 | $9.29bn |
| Year 4 | 20.27% | $15.31bn | 0.6571 | $10.06bn |
| Year 5 | 20.27% | $18.42bn | 0.5916 | $10.89bn |
| Year 6 | 17.39% | $21.62bn | 0.5326 | $11.51bn |
| Year 7 | 14.51% | $24.76bn | 0.4795 | $11.87bn |
| Year 8 | 11.63% | $27.64bn | 0.4317 | $11.93bn |
| Year 9 | 8.76% | $30.06bn | 0.3887 | $11.68bn |
| Year 10 | 5.88% | $31.82bn | 0.3500 | $11.14bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (11.07% − 3%) | $406.16bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $142.15bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $104.89bn |
| Total present value | $247.03bn |
| Shares outstanding | 921.00m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $268.22 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 15.27% | Growth 20.27% | Growth 25.27% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10.07% | $235.81 | $312.94 | $413.16 |
| 11.07% | $203.19 | $268.22 | $352.50 |
| 12.07% | $177.93 | $233.67 | $305.71 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.39 | 11.38% | $256.41 |
| Peer beta | 1.83 | 13.36% | $199.18 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.32 | 11.07% | $268.22 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $9.06 |
| Year 1 | 20.27% | $10.89 |
| Year 2 | 14.23% | $12.44 |
| Year 3 | 10.30% | $13.72 |
| Year 4 | 7.74% | $14.78 |
| Year 5 | 6.08% | $15.68 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $15.68 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 23.98× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $376.09 |
| Discounted at 11.07% over 5 years: ÷ 1.6904 | $222.49 |
We publish no single base value for Texas Instruments. Our valuation methods put it between $222.49 and $268.22 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $193.47 and a 10% chance it is above $535.25 in a year; a 53% chance it is higher than today's $312.48, from 39.5% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 11.07% a year.
At $312.48 the price implies free cash flow growing 23.1% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 20.3%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $293.80 | $167.47 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $283.74 | $166.98 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $276.48 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $284.69 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $300.84 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $277.36 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $312.48 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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