We publish no single base value for Textron. Our valuation methods put it between $77.61 and $82.88 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $82.88 | -1.7% | free cash flow $809.00m, growth 4.1% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 9.22%; stress floor $55.63 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $77.61 | -7.9% | earnings per share $6.63 valued at 15.24× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.88 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.16) |
| Peer beta | 0.47 (median of 11 S&P 500 Aerospace & Defense companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.87 (97% own, 3% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.91 (0.67 × 0.87 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 9.22% |
Free cash flow grows 4.10% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $809.00m | — | — |
| Year 1 | 4.10% | $842.17m | 0.9155 | $771.04m |
| Year 2 | 4.10% | $876.70m | 0.8382 | $734.86m |
| Year 3 | 4.10% | $912.64m | 0.7674 | $700.38m |
| Year 4 | 4.10% | $950.06m | 0.7026 | $667.52m |
| Year 5 | 4.10% | $989.01m | 0.6433 | $636.20m |
| Year 6 | 3.92% | $1.03bn | 0.5889 | $605.28m |
| Year 7 | 3.73% | $1.07bn | 0.5392 | $574.85m |
| Year 8 | 3.55% | $1.10bn | 0.4937 | $544.98m |
| Year 9 | 3.37% | $1.14bn | 0.4520 | $515.75m |
| Year 10 | 3.18% | $1.18bn | 0.4138 | $487.22m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (9.22% − 3%) | $19.48bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $8.06bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $6.24bn |
| Total present value | $14.30bn |
| Shares outstanding | 172.53m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $82.88 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -0.9% | Growth 4.1% | Growth 9.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.22% | $72.54 | $98.93 | — |
| 9.22% | $61.33 | $82.88 | — |
| 10.22% | $53.20 | $71.28 | — |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.88 | 9.09% | $84.74 |
| Peer beta | 0.47 | 7.24% | $122.01 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.91 | 9.22% | $82.88 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $6.63 |
| Year 1 | 4.10% | $6.90 |
| Year 2 | 3.77% | $7.16 |
| Year 3 | 3.54% | $7.42 |
| Year 4 | 3.38% | $7.67 |
| Year 5 | 3.26% | $7.92 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $7.92 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 15.24× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $120.64 |
| Discounted at 9.22% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5546 | $77.61 |
We publish no single base value for Textron. Our valuation methods put it between $77.61 and $82.88 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $58.55 and a 10% chance it is above $131.58 in a year; a 55% chance it is higher than today's $84.31, from 31.43% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.22% a year.
At $84.31 the price implies free cash flow growing 4.4% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 4.1%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $77.26 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $74.16 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $75.93 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $76.83 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $85.70 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $83.54 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $84.31 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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