We publish no single base value for Universal Health Services. Our valuation methods put it between $197.54 and $333.42 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $333.42 | +72.0% | free cash flow $1.12bn, growth 5.3% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 9.68%; stress floor $219.52 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $197.54 | +1.9% | earnings per share $22.44 valued at 11.26× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.11 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.26) |
| Peer beta | 0.77 (median of 58 S&P 500 Health Care companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.01 (73% own, 27% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.01 (0.67 × 1.01 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 9.68% |
Free cash flow grows 5.30% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.12bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 5.30% | $1.17bn | 0.9118 | $1.07bn |
| Year 2 | 5.30% | $1.24bn | 0.8314 | $1.03bn |
| Year 3 | 5.30% | $1.30bn | 0.7580 | $987.02m |
| Year 4 | 5.30% | $1.37bn | 0.6911 | $947.65m |
| Year 5 | 5.30% | $1.44bn | 0.6302 | $909.84m |
| Year 6 | 4.92% | $1.51bn | 0.5746 | $870.37m |
| Year 7 | 4.53% | $1.58bn | 0.5239 | $829.57m |
| Year 8 | 4.15% | $1.65bn | 0.4777 | $787.78m |
| Year 9 | 3.77% | $1.71bn | 0.4355 | $745.34m |
| Year 10 | 3.38% | $1.77bn | 0.3971 | $702.58m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (9.68% − 3%) | $27.30bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $10.84bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $8.88bn |
| Total present value | $19.72bn |
| Shares outstanding | 59.15m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $333.42 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 0.3% | Growth 5.3% | Growth 10.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.68% | $290.09 | $393.67 | — |
| 9.68% | $247.82 | $333.42 | — |
| 10.68% | $216.51 | $288.93 | — |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.11 | 10.12% | $311.85 |
| Peer beta | 0.77 | 8.59% | $399.42 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.01 | 9.68% | $333.42 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $22.44 |
| Year 1 | 5.30% | $23.63 |
| Year 2 | 4.72% | $24.75 |
| Year 3 | 4.29% | $25.81 |
| Year 4 | 3.97% | $26.84 |
| Year 5 | 3.73% | $27.84 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $27.84 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 11.26× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $313.47 |
| Discounted at 9.68% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5869 | $197.54 |
We publish no single base value for Universal Health Services. Our valuation methods put it between $197.54 and $333.42 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $131.70 and a 10% chance it is above $308.65 in a year; a 55% chance it is higher than today's $193.84, from 33.06% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.68% a year.
At $193.84 the price implies free cash flow growing -3.8% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 5.3%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $175.72 | $218.41 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $177.35 | $222.83 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $185.10 | $218.91 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $186.89 | $218.97 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $176.05 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $195.50 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $193.84 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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