We publish no single base value for UnitedHealth Group. Our valuation methods put it between $291.38 and $403.81 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $403.81 | -0.3% | free cash flow $22.83bn, growth -0.4% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 8.41%; plus net cash $13.62 a share; stress floor $305.41 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $291.38 | -28.1% | earnings per share $20.61 valued at 19.73× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.52 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.28) |
| Peer beta | 0.77 (median of 58 S&P 500 Health Care companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.59 (72% own, 28% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.73 (0.67 × 0.59 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 8.41% |
Free cash flow grows -0.40% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $22.83bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | -0.40% | $22.73bn | 0.9224 | $20.97bn |
| Year 2 | -0.40% | $22.64bn | 0.8508 | $19.27bn |
| Year 3 | -0.40% | $22.55bn | 0.7848 | $17.70bn |
| Year 4 | -0.40% | $22.46bn | 0.7238 | $16.26bn |
| Year 5 | -0.40% | $22.37bn | 0.6677 | $14.94bn |
| Year 6 | 0.17% | $22.41bn | 0.6158 | $13.80bn |
| Year 7 | 0.73% | $22.57bn | 0.5680 | $12.82bn |
| Year 8 | 1.30% | $22.87bn | 0.5239 | $11.98bn |
| Year 9 | 1.87% | $23.30bn | 0.4833 | $11.26bn |
| Year 10 | 2.43% | $23.86bn | 0.4458 | $10.64bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (8.41% − 3%) | $453.88bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $202.33bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $149.63bn |
| Total present value | $351.96bn |
| Shares outstanding | 902.00m |
| Cash flows per share = total ÷ shares | $390.20 |
| Plus net cash per share | $13.62 |
| Value per share | $403.81 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -5.4% | Growth -0.4% | Growth 4.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.41% | $358.16 | $489.05 | $666.79 |
| 8.41% | $299.55 | $403.82 | $544.65 |
| 9.41% | $259.00 | $345.04 | $460.65 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.52 | 7.47% | $483.38 |
| Peer beta | 0.77 | 8.59% | $391.70 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.73 | 8.41% | $403.82 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $20.61 |
| Year 1 | -0.40% | $20.52 |
| Year 2 | 0.96% | $20.72 |
| Year 3 | 1.78% | $21.09 |
| Year 4 | 2.27% | $21.57 |
| Year 5 | 2.56% | $22.12 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $22.12 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 19.73× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $436.42 |
| Discounted at 8.41% over 5 years: ÷ 1.4978 | $291.38 |
We publish no single base value for UnitedHealth Group. Our valuation methods put it between $291.38 and $403.81 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $316.01 and a 10% chance it is above $579.23 in a year; a 60% chance it is higher than today's $405.13, from 23.52% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 8.41% a year.
At $405.13 the price implies free cash flow growing -0.4% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown -0.4%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $371.90 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $379.30 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $401.43 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $418.09 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $406.97 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $394.15 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $405.13 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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