We publish no single base value for United Parcel Service. Our valuation methods put it between $69.37 and $111.46 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $111.46 | +1.0% | free cash flow $6.38bn, growth 2.17% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 9.59%; stress floor $80.64 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $69.37 | -37.2% | earnings per share $7.28 valued at 13.28× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.98 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.19) |
| Peer beta | 1.02 (median of 79 S&P 500 Industrials companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.99 (73% own, 27% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.99 (0.67 × 0.99 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 9.59% |
Free cash flow grows 2.17% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $6.38bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 2.17% | $6.52bn | 0.9125 | $5.95bn |
| Year 2 | 2.17% | $6.66bn | 0.8327 | $5.54bn |
| Year 3 | 2.17% | $6.80bn | 0.7599 | $5.17bn |
| Year 4 | 2.17% | $6.95bn | 0.6934 | $4.82bn |
| Year 5 | 2.17% | $7.10bn | 0.6328 | $4.49bn |
| Year 6 | 2.31% | $7.27bn | 0.5774 | $4.20bn |
| Year 7 | 2.45% | $7.44bn | 0.5269 | $3.92bn |
| Year 8 | 2.58% | $7.64bn | 0.4808 | $3.67bn |
| Year 9 | 2.72% | $7.84bn | 0.4388 | $3.44bn |
| Year 10 | 2.86% | $8.07bn | 0.4004 | $3.23bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (9.59% − 3%) | $126.20bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $50.53bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $44.44bn |
| Total present value | $94.97bn |
| Shares outstanding | 852.00m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $111.46 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -2.83% | Growth 2.17% | Growth 7.17% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.59% | $96.44 | $131.23 | — |
| 9.59% | $82.69 | $111.46 | $149.94 |
| 10.59% | $72.53 | $96.90 | $129.34 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.98 | 9.54% | $112.22 |
| Peer beta | 1.02 | 9.72% | $109.25 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.99 | 9.59% | $111.46 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $7.28 |
| Year 1 | 2.17% | $7.44 |
| Year 2 | 2.42% | $7.62 |
| Year 3 | 2.59% | $7.82 |
| Year 4 | 2.72% | $8.03 |
| Year 5 | 2.80% | $8.25 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $8.25 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 13.28× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $109.62 |
| Discounted at 9.59% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5804 | $69.37 |
We publish no single base value for United Parcel Service. Our valuation methods put it between $69.37 and $111.46 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $82.42 and a 10% chance it is above $165.63 in a year; a 59% chance it is higher than today's $110.38, from 27.09% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.59% a year.
At $110.38 the price implies free cash flow growing 2.0% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 2.2%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $93.02 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $94.57 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $97.48 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $101.06 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $108.25 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $108.30 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $110.38 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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