We publish no single base value for Visa Inc. Our valuation methods put it between $366.86 and $420.63 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $366.86 | -12.7% | free cash flow $22.06bn, growth 13.2% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 9.04%; stress floor $184.27 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $420.63 | +0.1% | earnings per share $15.03 valued at 28.53× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.80 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.14) |
| Peer beta | 0.84 (median of 8 S&P 500 Transaction & Payment Processing Services companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.80 (88% own, 12% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.87 (0.67 × 0.80 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 9.04% |
Free cash flow grows 13.20% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $22.06bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 13.20% | $24.97bn | 0.9171 | $22.90bn |
| Year 2 | 13.20% | $28.26bn | 0.8410 | $23.77bn |
| Year 3 | 13.20% | $32.00bn | 0.7712 | $24.68bn |
| Year 4 | 13.20% | $36.22bn | 0.7073 | $25.62bn |
| Year 5 | 13.20% | $41.00bn | 0.6486 | $26.59bn |
| Year 6 | 11.50% | $45.71bn | 0.5948 | $27.19bn |
| Year 7 | 9.80% | $50.19bn | 0.5455 | $27.38bn |
| Year 8 | 8.10% | $54.26bn | 0.5002 | $27.14bn |
| Year 9 | 6.40% | $57.73bn | 0.4587 | $26.48bn |
| Year 10 | 4.70% | $60.45bn | 0.4207 | $25.43bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (9.04% − 3%) | $1.03tn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $433.26bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $257.17bn |
| Total present value | $690.44bn |
| Shares outstanding | 1.88bn |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $366.86 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 8.2% | Growth 13.2% | Growth 18.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.04% | — | $446.42 | $600.65 |
| 9.04% | — | $366.86 | $490.69 |
| 10.04% | — | $310.17 | $412.47 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.80 | 8.73% | $388.89 |
| Peer beta | 0.84 | 8.91% | $376.01 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.87 | 9.04% | $366.86 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $15.03 |
| Year 1 | 13.20% | $17.02 |
| Year 2 | 10.14% | $18.74 |
| Year 3 | 8.00% | $20.24 |
| Year 4 | 6.50% | $21.56 |
| Year 5 | 5.45% | $22.73 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $22.73 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 28.53× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $648.53 |
| Discounted at 9.04% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5418 | $420.63 |
We publish no single base value for Visa Inc. Our valuation methods put it between $366.86 and $420.63 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $340.63 and a 10% chance it is above $591.48 in a year; a 62% chance it is higher than today's $420.31, from 21.42% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.04% a year.
At $420.31 the price implies free cash flow growing 15.5% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 13.2%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $360.66 | $346.87 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $385.45 | $347.07 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $402.61 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $407.92 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $413.59 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $422.65 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $420.31 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
Run a full Desk Run on V · Visa Inc. company page · Call and put prices