On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for Valero Energy is $849.39 a share, 126.5% above its $374.95 close; 1 of 1 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | — | — | 10.47x spot |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $849.39 | +126.5% | earnings per share $59.81 valued at 10.34× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $59.81 |
| Year 1 | 25.69% | $75.17 |
| Year 2 | 18.88% | $89.37 |
| Year 3 | 14.12% | $101.99 |
| Year 4 | 10.78% | $112.98 |
| Year 5 | 8.45% | $122.53 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $122.53 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 10.34× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $1,266.93 |
| Discounted at 8.32% over 5 years: ÷ 1.4916 | $849.39 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $849.39 |
One method is kept, so the base value is its value: $849.39
Base value $849.39 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $214.26 and a 10% chance it is above $641.87 in a year; a 49% chance it is higher than today's $374.95, from 42.59% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 8.32% a year.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $406.30 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $433.75 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $444.71 | $509.77 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $419.28 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $399.66 | $2,843.93 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $346.45 | $2,886.01 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $374.95 | $849.39 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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