We publish no single base value for Vulcan Materials Company. Our valuation methods put it between $60.33 and $183.73 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $60.33 | -78.5% | free cash flow $781.20m, growth -4.7% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 9.5%; stress floor $54.08 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $183.73 | -34.4% | earnings per share $8.79 valued at 35.09× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.98 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.19) |
| Peer beta | 0.88 (median of 23 S&P 500 Materials companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.95 (69% own, 31% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.97 (0.67 × 0.95 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 9.50% |
Free cash flow grows -4.70% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $781.20m | — | — |
| Year 1 | -4.70% | $744.48m | 0.9133 | $679.92m |
| Year 2 | -4.70% | $709.49m | 0.8341 | $591.78m |
| Year 3 | -4.70% | $676.15m | 0.7618 | $515.06m |
| Year 4 | -4.70% | $644.37m | 0.6957 | $448.29m |
| Year 5 | -4.70% | $614.08m | 0.6354 | $390.17m |
| Year 6 | -3.42% | $593.10m | 0.5803 | $344.16m |
| Year 7 | -2.13% | $580.45m | 0.5300 | $307.61m |
| Year 8 | -0.85% | $575.51m | 0.4840 | $278.55m |
| Year 9 | 0.43% | $578.01m | 0.4420 | $255.50m |
| Year 10 | 1.72% | $587.93m | 0.4037 | $237.35m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (9.50% − 3%) | $9.32bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $3.76bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $4.05bn |
| Total present value | $7.81bn |
| Shares outstanding | 129.50m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $60.33 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -9.7% | Growth -4.7% | Growth 0.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.50% | $51.49 | $70.25 | $95.76 |
| 9.50% | $44.73 | $60.33 | $81.41 |
| 10.50% | $39.72 | $53.01 | $70.87 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.98 | 9.54% | $59.95 |
| Peer beta | 0.88 | 9.09% | $63.96 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.97 | 9.50% | $60.33 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $8.79 |
| Year 1 | -4.70% | $8.38 |
| Year 2 | -2.39% | $8.18 |
| Year 3 | -0.77% | $8.12 |
| Year 4 | 0.36% | $8.15 |
| Year 5 | 1.15% | $8.24 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $8.24 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 35.09× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $289.17 |
| Discounted at 9.50% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5739 | $183.73 |
We publish no single base value for Vulcan Materials Company. Our valuation methods put it between $60.33 and $183.73 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $202.12 and a 10% chance it is above $429.08 in a year; a 57% chance it is higher than today's $280.18, from 29.22% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.5% a year.
At $280.18 the price implies free cash flow growing 21.5% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown -4.7%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $243.06 | $107.24 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $244.58 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $257.63 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $261.69 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $281.25 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $282.72 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $280.18 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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