On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for Verisk Analytics is $166.09 a share, 19.5% below its $206.32 close; 0 of 1 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $166.09 | -19.5% | free cash flow $1.10bn, growth 4.86% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 8.91%; stress floor $107.31 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | — | — | no exit multiple: the five-year median of 35.8x is 1.5x the 23.7x this name trades at today (limit 1.5x) — the market has re-rated the name, so its own history prices a business it is no longer paid for. The forward PE is not a substitute: it is today's price divided by earnings, and an anchor built from it can only restate the price |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.66 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.20) |
| Peer beta | 1.02 (median of 79 S&P 500 Industrials companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.76 (70% own, 30% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.84 (0.67 × 0.76 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 8.91% |
Free cash flow grows 4.86% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.10bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 4.86% | $1.15bn | 0.9182 | $1.06bn |
| Year 2 | 4.86% | $1.21bn | 0.8431 | $1.02bn |
| Year 3 | 4.86% | $1.27bn | 0.7741 | $982.15m |
| Year 4 | 4.86% | $1.33bn | 0.7108 | $945.63m |
| Year 5 | 4.86% | $1.40bn | 0.6526 | $910.46m |
| Year 6 | 4.55% | $1.46bn | 0.5992 | $874.01m |
| Year 7 | 4.24% | $1.52bn | 0.5502 | $836.53m |
| Year 8 | 3.93% | $1.58bn | 0.5052 | $798.28m |
| Year 9 | 3.62% | $1.64bn | 0.4639 | $759.51m |
| Year 10 | 3.31% | $1.69bn | 0.4259 | $720.46m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (8.91% − 3%) | $29.48bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $12.56bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $8.91bn |
| Total present value | $21.46bn |
| Shares outstanding | 129.23m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $166.09 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -0.14% | Growth 4.86% | Growth 9.86% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.91% | $146.71 | $200.56 | — |
| 8.91% | $122.61 | $166.09 | — |
| 9.91% | $105.45 | $141.62 | — |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.66 | 8.10% | $192.97 |
| Peer beta | 1.02 | 9.72% | $145.70 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.84 | 8.91% | $166.09 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $166.09 |
One method is kept, so the base value is its value: $166.09
Base value $166.09 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $128.04 and a 10% chance it is above $341.50 in a year; a 52% chance it is higher than today's $206.32, from 38.08% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 8.91% a year.
At $206.32 the price implies free cash flow growing 8.5% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 4.9%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $163.88 | $164.04 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $177.63 | $163.12 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $190.90 | $177.89 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $195.88 | $180.47 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $196.30 | $185.50 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $204.59 | $174.98 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $206.32 | $166.09 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
Run a full Desk Run on VRSK · Verisk Analytics company page · Call and put prices