On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for Vertiv is $608.85 a share, 190.4% above its $209.64 close; 1 of 1 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $608.85 | +190.4% | free cash flow $3.12bn, growth 35.27% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 10.98%; plus net cash $1.13 a share; stress floor $182.01 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | — | — | no exit multiple: the five-year median of 37.8x is 1.8x the 21.2x this name trades at today (limit 1.5x) — the market has re-rated the name, so its own history prices a business it is no longer paid for. The forward PE is not a substitute: it is today's price divided by earnings, and an anchor built from it can only restate the price |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 2.09 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.46) |
| Peer beta | 1.23 (median of 5 S&P 500 Electrical Components & Equipment companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.44 (25% own, 75% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.30 (0.67 × 1.44 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 10.98% |
Free cash flow grows 35.27% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $3.12bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 35.27% | $4.22bn | 0.9011 | $3.80bn |
| Year 2 | 35.27% | $5.70bn | 0.8119 | $4.63bn |
| Year 3 | 35.27% | $7.71bn | 0.7316 | $5.64bn |
| Year 4 | 35.27% | $10.44bn | 0.6592 | $6.88bn |
| Year 5 | 35.27% | $14.12bn | 0.5940 | $8.39bn |
| Year 6 | 29.89% | $18.34bn | 0.5352 | $9.81bn |
| Year 7 | 24.51% | $22.83bn | 0.4823 | $11.01bn |
| Year 8 | 19.14% | $27.20bn | 0.4346 | $11.82bn |
| Year 9 | 13.76% | $30.94bn | 0.3916 | $12.12bn |
| Year 10 | 8.38% | $33.53bn | 0.3528 | $11.83bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (10.98% − 3%) | $432.83bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $152.71bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $85.93bn |
| Total present value | $238.64bn |
| Shares outstanding | 392.68m |
| Cash flows per share = total ÷ shares | $607.72 |
| Plus net cash per share | $1.13 |
| Value per share | $608.85 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 30.27% | Growth 35.27% | Growth 40.27% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.98% | $551.58 | $719.99 | $934.41 |
| 10.98% | $468.11 | $608.85 | $787.72 |
| 11.98% | $403.98 | $523.58 | $675.30 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 2.09 | 14.54% | $376.39 |
| Peer beta | 1.23 | 10.66% | $640.59 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.30 | 10.98% | $608.85 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $608.85 |
One method is kept, so the base value is its value: $608.85
Base value $608.85 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $63.80 and a 10% chance it is above $466.53 in a year; a 40% chance it is higher than today's $209.64, from 77.23% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 10.98% a year.
At $209.64 the price implies free cash flow growing 15.5% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 35.3%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $252.18 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $242.78 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $206.42 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $194.32 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $232.50 | $628.28 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $182.86 | $635.16 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $209.64 | $608.85 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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