On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for Vistra Corp . is $298.90 a share, 122.2% above its $134.51 close; 1 of 1 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $298.90 | +122.2% | free cash flow $1.93bn, growth 19.76% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 8.37%; stress floor — |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | — | — | no exit multiple: the five-year median of 22.8x is 1.8x the 12.4x this name trades at today (limit 1.5x) — the market has re-rated the name, so its own history prices a business it is no longer paid for. The forward PE is not a substitute: it is today's price divided by earnings, and an anchor built from it can only restate the price |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: 'East' matches no business kind in the house table, so it cannot be valued. The rest are not published without it — a sum missing a part reads as a valuation and is simply wrong |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.37 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.32) |
| Peer beta | 0.47 (median of 14 S&P 500 Electric Utilities companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.58 (12% own, 88% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.72 (0.67 × 0.58 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 8.37% |
Free cash flow grows 19.76% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.93bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 19.76% | $2.31bn | 0.9228 | $2.13bn |
| Year 2 | 19.76% | $2.77bn | 0.8515 | $2.36bn |
| Year 3 | 19.76% | $3.31bn | 0.7857 | $2.60bn |
| Year 4 | 19.76% | $3.97bn | 0.7250 | $2.88bn |
| Year 5 | 19.76% | $4.75bn | 0.6690 | $3.18bn |
| Year 6 | 16.97% | $5.56bn | 0.6174 | $3.43bn |
| Year 7 | 14.17% | $6.35bn | 0.5697 | $3.62bn |
| Year 8 | 11.38% | $7.07bn | 0.5257 | $3.72bn |
| Year 9 | 8.59% | $7.68bn | 0.4851 | $3.72bn |
| Year 10 | 5.79% | $8.12bn | 0.4476 | $3.63bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (8.37% − 3%) | $155.75bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $69.72bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $31.27bn |
| Total present value | $100.98bn |
| Shares outstanding | 337.85m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $298.90 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 14.76% | Growth 19.76% | Growth 24.76% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.37% | $278.99 | $376.07 | $503.29 |
| 8.37% | $223.01 | $298.90 | $398.06 |
| 9.37% | $184.80 | $246.31 | $326.45 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.37 | 11.30% | $181.45 |
| Peer beta | 0.47 | 7.24% | $388.32 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.72 | 8.37% | $298.90 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $298.90 |
One method is kept, so the base value is its value: $298.90
Base value $298.90 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $53.94 and a 10% chance it is above $266.96 in a year; a 43% chance it is higher than today's $134.51, from 62.08% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 8.37% a year.
At $134.51 the price implies free cash flow growing 6.4% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 19.8%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $140.02 | $33.55 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $161.48 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $152.02 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $140.16 | $47.29 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $138.37 | $47.47 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $124.80 | $693.55 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $134.51 | $298.90 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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