We publish no single base value for Viatris. Our valuation methods put it between $18.99 and $30.80 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $30.80 | +49.0% | free cash flow $2.04bn, growth -0.3% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 7.83%; stress floor $22.25 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $18.99 | -8.1% | earnings per share $2.59 valued at 10× (the 10× floor; the stock's own median P/E is 3.6×) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.89 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.27) |
| Peer beta | 0.26 (median of 6 S&P 500 Pharmaceuticals companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.40 (22% own, 78% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.60 (0.67 × 0.40 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 7.83% |
Free cash flow grows -0.30% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $2.04bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | -0.30% | $2.04bn | 0.9274 | $1.89bn |
| Year 2 | -0.30% | $2.03bn | 0.8600 | $1.75bn |
| Year 3 | -0.30% | $2.02bn | 0.7976 | $1.61bn |
| Year 4 | -0.30% | $2.02bn | 0.7397 | $1.49bn |
| Year 5 | -0.30% | $2.01bn | 0.6860 | $1.38bn |
| Year 6 | 0.25% | $2.02bn | 0.6362 | $1.28bn |
| Year 7 | 0.80% | $2.03bn | 0.5900 | $1.20bn |
| Year 8 | 1.35% | $2.06bn | 0.5471 | $1.13bn |
| Year 9 | 1.90% | $2.10bn | 0.5074 | $1.06bn |
| Year 10 | 2.45% | $2.15bn | 0.4705 | $1.01bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (7.83% − 3%) | $45.86bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $21.58bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $13.80bn |
| Total present value | $35.38bn |
| Shares outstanding | 1.15bn |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $30.80 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -5.3% | Growth -0.3% | Growth 4.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.83% | $27.78 | $38.59 | $53.32 |
| 7.83% | $22.43 | $30.80 | $42.15 |
| 8.83% | $18.90 | $25.68 | $34.81 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.89 | 9.13% | $24.45 |
| Peer beta | 0.26 | 6.30% | $44.62 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.60 | 7.83% | $30.80 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $2.59 |
| Year 1 | -0.30% | $2.58 |
| Year 2 | 0.85% | $2.61 |
| Year 3 | 1.61% | $2.65 |
| Year 4 | 2.09% | $2.70 |
| Year 5 | 2.41% | $2.77 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $2.77 |
| Exit P/E (the 10× floor; the stock's own median P/E is 3.6×) | 10× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $27.68 |
| Discounted at 7.83% over 5 years: ÷ 1.4578 | $18.99 |
We publish no single base value for Viatris. Our valuation methods put it between $18.99 and $30.80 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $15.48 and a 10% chance it is above $30.07 in a year; a 57% chance it is higher than today's $20.67, from 25.76% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 7.83% a year.
At $20.67 the price implies free cash flow growing -6.6% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown -0.3%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $17.60 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $17.64 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $18.66 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $18.00 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $19.04 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $19.91 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $20.67 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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