On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for Workday, Inc. is $296.48 a share, 55.5% above its $190.64 close; 1 of 1 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $296.48 | +55.5% | free cash flow $2.84bn, growth 12.8% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 9.99%; stress floor $157.36 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | — | — | no exit multiple: the five-year median of 41.8x is 2.9x the 14.4x this name trades at today (limit 1.5x) — the market has re-rated the name, so its own history prices a business it is no longer paid for. The forward PE is not a substitute: it is today's price divided by earnings, and an anchor built from it can only restate the price |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.01 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.29) |
| Peer beta | 1.25 (median of 14 S&P 500 Application Software companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.12 (55% own, 45% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.08 (0.67 × 1.12 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 9.99% |
Free cash flow grows 12.80% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $2.84bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 12.80% | $3.21bn | 0.9092 | $2.92bn |
| Year 2 | 12.80% | $3.62bn | 0.8266 | $2.99bn |
| Year 3 | 12.80% | $4.08bn | 0.7515 | $3.07bn |
| Year 4 | 12.80% | $4.60bn | 0.6833 | $3.15bn |
| Year 5 | 12.80% | $5.19bn | 0.6212 | $3.23bn |
| Year 6 | 11.17% | $5.77bn | 0.5648 | $3.26bn |
| Year 7 | 9.53% | $6.32bn | 0.5135 | $3.25bn |
| Year 8 | 7.90% | $6.82bn | 0.4668 | $3.19bn |
| Year 9 | 6.27% | $7.25bn | 0.4244 | $3.08bn |
| Year 10 | 4.63% | $7.59bn | 0.3859 | $2.93bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (9.99% − 3%) | $111.80bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $43.14bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $31.05bn |
| Total present value | $74.19bn |
| Shares outstanding | 250.24m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $296.48 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 7.8% | Growth 12.8% | Growth 17.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.99% | — | $350.97 | $469.79 |
| 9.99% | $221.87 | $296.48 | $394.53 |
| 10.99% | $192.71 | — | $338.52 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.01 | 9.68% | $311.85 |
| Peer beta | 1.25 | 10.75% | $264.43 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.08 | 9.99% | $296.48 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $296.48 |
One method is kept, so the base value is its value: $296.48
Base value $296.48 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $119.65 and a 10% chance it is above $318.89 in a year; a 53% chance it is higher than today's $190.64, from 38.05% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.99% a year.
At $190.64 the price implies free cash flow growing 5.2% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 12.8%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $186.14 | $200.26 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $186.59 | $202.44 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $190.81 | $282.45 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $209.99 | $286.07 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $197.82 | $297.23 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $192.90 | $300.39 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $190.64 | $296.48 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 31 Jul 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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