We publish no single base value for Western Digital. Our valuation methods put it between $274.85 and $316.60 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $316.60 | +1.7% | free cash flow $4.29bn, growth 20.66% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 12.55%; plus net cash $1.37 a share; stress floor $147.48 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $274.85 | -11.7% | earnings per share $24.72 valued at 10.57× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 2.27 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.41) |
| Peer beta | 1.45 (median of 8 S&P 500 Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.97 (63% own, 37% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.65 (0.67 × 1.97 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 12.55% |
Free cash flow grows 20.66% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $4.29bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 20.66% | $5.18bn | 0.8885 | $4.60bn |
| Year 2 | 20.66% | $6.24bn | 0.7894 | $4.93bn |
| Year 3 | 20.66% | $7.53bn | 0.7013 | $5.28bn |
| Year 4 | 20.66% | $9.09bn | 0.6231 | $5.66bn |
| Year 5 | 20.66% | $10.97bn | 0.5536 | $6.07bn |
| Year 6 | 17.72% | $12.91bn | 0.4918 | $6.35bn |
| Year 7 | 14.77% | $14.82bn | 0.4370 | $6.48bn |
| Year 8 | 11.83% | $16.57bn | 0.3882 | $6.43bn |
| Year 9 | 8.89% | $18.05bn | 0.3449 | $6.22bn |
| Year 10 | 5.94% | $19.12bn | 0.3064 | $5.86bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (12.55% − 3%) | $206.09bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $63.16bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $57.89bn |
| Total present value | $121.05bn |
| Shares outstanding | 384.00m |
| Cash flows per share = total ÷ shares | $315.23 |
| Plus net cash per share | $1.37 |
| Value per share | $316.60 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 15.66% | Growth 20.66% | Growth 25.66% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11.55% | $274.54 | $360.96 | $472.75 |
| 12.55% | $242.06 | $316.60 | $412.77 |
| 13.55% | $215.92 | $280.98 | $364.70 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 2.27 | 15.34% | $232.29 |
| Peer beta | 1.45 | 11.65% | $356.04 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.65 | 12.55% | $316.60 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $24.72 |
| Year 1 | 20.66% | $29.83 |
| Year 2 | 16.25% | $34.68 |
| Year 3 | 12.93% | $39.16 |
| Year 4 | 10.45% | $43.26 |
| Year 5 | 8.59% | $46.97 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $46.97 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 10.57× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $496.50 |
| Discounted at 12.55% over 5 years: ÷ 1.8064 | $274.85 |
We publish no single base value for Western Digital. Our valuation methods put it between $274.85 and $316.60 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $94.29 and a 10% chance it is above $706.99 in a year; a 41% chance it is higher than today's $311.21, from 78.2% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 12.55% a year.
At $311.21 the price implies free cash flow growing 20.3% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 20.7%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $415.29 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $397.28 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $332.00 | $186.46 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $343.67 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $366.11 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $263.78 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $311.21 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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