We publish no single base value for Waste Management. Our valuation methods put it between $196.30 and $214.42 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $214.42 | -12.2% | free cash flow $3.74bn, growth 5.19% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 8.14%; stress floor $131.69 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $196.30 | -19.6% | earnings per share $8.10 valued at 29.17× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.38 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.16) |
| Peer beta | 1.02 (median of 79 S&P 500 Industrials companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.51 (79% own, 21% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.67 (0.67 × 0.51 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 8.14% |
Free cash flow grows 5.19% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $3.74bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 5.19% | $3.93bn | 0.9247 | $3.64bn |
| Year 2 | 5.19% | $4.14bn | 0.8550 | $3.54bn |
| Year 3 | 5.19% | $4.35bn | 0.7906 | $3.44bn |
| Year 4 | 5.19% | $4.58bn | 0.7311 | $3.35bn |
| Year 5 | 5.19% | $4.82bn | 0.6760 | $3.26bn |
| Year 6 | 4.83% | $5.05bn | 0.6251 | $3.16bn |
| Year 7 | 4.46% | $5.27bn | 0.5780 | $3.05bn |
| Year 8 | 4.10% | $5.49bn | 0.5345 | $2.93bn |
| Year 9 | 3.73% | $5.69bn | 0.4942 | $2.81bn |
| Year 10 | 3.37% | $5.89bn | 0.4570 | $2.69bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (8.14% − 3%) | $117.85bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $53.86bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $31.87bn |
| Total present value | $85.72bn |
| Shares outstanding | 399.80m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $214.42 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 0.19% | Growth 5.19% | Growth 10.19% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.14% | $194.10 | — | $365.55 |
| 8.14% | $157.24 | $214.42 | $291.03 |
| 9.14% | $132.33 | $178.86 | — |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.38 | 6.84% | — |
| Peer beta | 1.02 | 9.72% | $163.22 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.67 | 8.14% | $214.42 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $8.10 |
| Year 1 | 5.19% | $8.52 |
| Year 2 | 4.53% | $8.90 |
| Year 3 | 4.07% | $9.27 |
| Year 4 | 3.75% | $9.62 |
| Year 5 | 3.53% | $9.95 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $9.95 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 29.17× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $290.36 |
| Discounted at 8.14% over 5 years: ÷ 1.4792 | $196.30 |
We publish no single base value for Waste Management. Our valuation methods put it between $196.30 and $214.42 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $192.61 and a 10% chance it is above $344.69 in a year; a 60% chance it is higher than today's $244.11, from 22.59% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 8.14% a year.
At $244.11 the price implies free cash flow growing 7.3% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 5.2%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $204.45 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $208.83 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $226.86 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $239.38 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $233.45 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $236.26 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $244.11 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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