We publish no single base value for Walmart. Our valuation methods put it between $41.29 and $83.44 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $41.29 | -67.3% | free cash flow $13.51bn, growth 5.9% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 8.05%; stress floor $24.65 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $83.44 | -33.9% | earnings per share $2.88 valued at 34.46× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: 'Walmart U.S.' matches no business kind in the house table, so it cannot be valued. The rest are not published without it — a sum missing a part reads as a valuation and is simply wrong |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.53 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.17) |
| Peer beta | 0.36 (median of 31 S&P 500 Consumer Staples companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.48 (70% own, 30% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.65 (0.67 × 0.48 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 8.05% |
Free cash flow grows 5.90% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $13.51bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 5.90% | $14.31bn | 0.9255 | $13.24bn |
| Year 2 | 5.90% | $15.15bn | 0.8565 | $12.98bn |
| Year 3 | 5.90% | $16.04bn | 0.7926 | $12.72bn |
| Year 4 | 5.90% | $16.99bn | 0.7335 | $12.46bn |
| Year 5 | 5.90% | $17.99bn | 0.6789 | $12.21bn |
| Year 6 | 5.42% | $18.97bn | 0.6282 | $11.92bn |
| Year 7 | 4.93% | $19.90bn | 0.5814 | $11.57bn |
| Year 8 | 4.45% | $20.79bn | 0.5381 | $11.19bn |
| Year 9 | 3.97% | $21.61bn | 0.4980 | $10.76bn |
| Year 10 | 3.48% | $22.37bn | 0.4608 | $10.31bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (8.05% − 3%) | $455.74bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $210.02bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $119.35bn |
| Total present value | $329.38bn |
| Shares outstanding | 7.98bn |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $41.29 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 0.9% | Growth 5.9% | Growth 10.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.05% | $37.58 | — | $70.76 |
| 8.05% | $30.27 | $41.29 | $56.03 |
| 9.05% | $25.37 | $34.30 | — |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.53 | 7.52% | — |
| Peer beta | 0.36 | 6.75% | — |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.65 | 8.05% | $41.29 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $2.88 |
| Year 1 | 5.90% | $3.06 |
| Year 2 | 4.74% | $3.20 |
| Year 3 | 4.04% | $3.33 |
| Year 4 | 3.63% | $3.45 |
| Year 5 | 3.38% | $3.57 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $3.57 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 34.46× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $122.91 |
| Discounted at 8.05% over 5 years: ÷ 1.4731 | $83.44 |
We publish no single base value for Walmart. Our valuation methods put it between $41.29 and $83.44 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $88.55 and a 10% chance it is above $192.05 in a year; a 55% chance it is higher than today's $126.19, from 30.05% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 8.05% a year.
At $126.19 the price implies free cash flow growing 24.7% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 5.9%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $104.26 | $78.47 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $111.35 | $78.76 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $118.81 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $119.89 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $123.51 | $84.75 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $125.52 | $84.51 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $126.19 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 31 Jul 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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