We publish no single base value for W. R. Berkley Corporation. Our valuation methods put it between $53.88 and $217.97 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $217.97 | +182.5% | free cash flow $3.10bn, growth -0.8% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 7.38%; plus net cash $71.93 a share; stress floor $176.12 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $53.88 | -30.2% | earnings per share $4.95 valued at 14.74× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.22 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.19) |
| Peer beta | 0.29 (median of 7 S&P 500 Property & Casualty Insurance companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.26 (50% own, 50% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.50 (0.67 × 0.26 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 7.38% |
Free cash flow grows -0.80% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $3.10bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | -0.80% | $3.07bn | 0.9313 | $2.86bn |
| Year 2 | -0.80% | $3.05bn | 0.8673 | $2.64bn |
| Year 3 | -0.80% | $3.02bn | 0.8077 | $2.44bn |
| Year 4 | -0.80% | $3.00bn | 0.7522 | $2.26bn |
| Year 5 | -0.80% | $2.98bn | 0.7005 | $2.08bn |
| Year 6 | -0.17% | $2.97bn | 0.6523 | $1.94bn |
| Year 7 | 0.47% | $2.98bn | 0.6075 | $1.81bn |
| Year 8 | 1.10% | $3.02bn | 0.5657 | $1.71bn |
| Year 9 | 1.73% | $3.07bn | 0.5269 | $1.62bn |
| Year 10 | 2.37% | $3.14bn | 0.4906 | $1.54bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (7.38% − 3%) | $73.88bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $36.25bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $20.90bn |
| Total present value | $57.15bn |
| Shares outstanding | 391.34m |
| Cash flows per share = total ÷ shares | $146.04 |
| Plus net cash per share | $71.93 |
| Value per share | $217.97 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -5.8% | Growth -0.8% | Growth 4.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.38% | $206.25 | $259.69 | $332.72 |
| 7.38% | $177.69 | $217.97 | $272.72 |
| 8.38% | $159.66 | $191.72 | $235.05 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.22 | 6.12% | $274.90 |
| Peer beta | 0.29 | 6.43% | $256.77 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.50 | 7.38% | $217.97 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $4.95 |
| Year 1 | -0.80% | $4.91 |
| Year 2 | 0.53% | $4.93 |
| Year 3 | 1.39% | $5.00 |
| Year 4 | 1.96% | $5.10 |
| Year 5 | 2.32% | $5.22 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $5.22 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 14.74× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $76.92 |
| Discounted at 7.38% over 5 years: ÷ 1.4276 | $53.88 |
We publish no single base value for W. R. Berkley Corporation. Our valuation methods put it between $53.88 and $217.97 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $63.15 and a 10% chance it is above $104.76 in a year; a 61% chance it is higher than today's $77.15, from 19.65% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 7.38% a year.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $68.98 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $71.91 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $75.42 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $73.33 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $73.86 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $75.23 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $77.15 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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