We publish no single base value for Williams-Sonoma, Inc. Our valuation methods put it between $85.85 and $145.58 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $145.58 | -41.9% | free cash flow $1.35bn, growth 2.24% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 10.66%; stress floor $108.85 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $85.85 | -65.7% | earnings per share $10.29 valued at 12.19× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.48 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.29) |
| Peer beta | 1.09 (median of 46 S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.35 (67% own, 33% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.23 (0.67 × 1.35 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 10.66% |
Free cash flow grows 2.24% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.35bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 2.24% | $1.38bn | 0.9036 | $1.24bn |
| Year 2 | 2.24% | $1.41bn | 0.8165 | $1.15bn |
| Year 3 | 2.24% | $1.44bn | 0.7379 | $1.06bn |
| Year 4 | 2.24% | $1.47bn | 0.6667 | $980.49m |
| Year 5 | 2.24% | $1.50bn | 0.6025 | $905.85m |
| Year 6 | 2.37% | $1.54bn | 0.5444 | $837.92m |
| Year 7 | 2.49% | $1.58bn | 0.4920 | $776.05m |
| Year 8 | 2.62% | $1.62bn | 0.4445 | $719.63m |
| Year 9 | 2.75% | $1.66bn | 0.4017 | $668.14m |
| Year 10 | 2.87% | $1.71bn | 0.3630 | $621.10m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (10.66% − 3%) | $22.99bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $8.35bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $8.96bn |
| Total present value | $17.31bn |
| Shares outstanding | 118.89m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $145.58 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -2.76% | Growth 2.24% | Growth 7.24% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.66% | $124.15 | $167.22 | $224.79 |
| 10.66% | $109.05 | $145.58 | $194.20 |
| 11.66% | $97.38 | $128.93 | $170.73 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.48 | 11.79% | $127.12 |
| Peer beta | 1.09 | 10.04% | $158.50 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.23 | 10.66% | $145.58 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $10.29 |
| Year 1 | 2.24% | $10.52 |
| Year 2 | 2.47% | $10.78 |
| Year 3 | 2.63% | $11.07 |
| Year 4 | 2.74% | $11.37 |
| Year 5 | 2.82% | $11.69 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $11.69 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 12.19× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $142.48 |
| Discounted at 10.66% over 5 years: ÷ 1.6598 | $85.85 |
We publish no single base value for Williams-Sonoma, Inc. Our valuation methods put it between $85.85 and $145.58 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $174.05 and a 10% chance it is above $399.59 in a year; a 57% chance it is higher than today's $250.38, from 32.26% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 10.66% a year.
At $250.38 the price implies free cash flow growing 11.7% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 2.2%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $232.30 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $241.78 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $250.16 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $252.47 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $252.72 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $254.06 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $250.38 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 31 Jul 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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