We publish no single base value for Willis Towers Watson. Our valuation methods put it between $277.82 and $413.90 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $413.90 | +25.9% | free cash flow $1.74bn, growth 4.76% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 8.14%; stress floor $257.77 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $277.82 | -15.5% | earnings per share $19.85 valued at 17.04× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.44 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.20) |
| Peer beta | 0.52 (median of 5 S&P 500 Insurance Brokers companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.50 (20% own, 80% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.67 (0.67 × 0.50 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 8.14% |
Free cash flow grows 4.76% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.74bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 4.76% | $1.83bn | 0.9247 | $1.69bn |
| Year 2 | 4.76% | $1.91bn | 0.8550 | $1.64bn |
| Year 3 | 4.76% | $2.00bn | 0.7906 | $1.58bn |
| Year 4 | 4.76% | $2.10bn | 0.7311 | $1.53bn |
| Year 5 | 4.76% | $2.20bn | 0.6760 | $1.49bn |
| Year 6 | 4.47% | $2.30bn | 0.6251 | $1.44bn |
| Year 7 | 4.17% | $2.39bn | 0.5780 | $1.38bn |
| Year 8 | 3.88% | $2.49bn | 0.5345 | $1.33bn |
| Year 9 | 3.59% | $2.58bn | 0.4942 | $1.27bn |
| Year 10 | 3.29% | $2.66bn | 0.4570 | $1.22bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (8.14% − 3%) | $53.26bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $24.34bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $14.57bn |
| Total present value | $38.91bn |
| Shares outstanding | 94.00m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $413.90 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -0.24% | Growth 4.76% | Growth 9.76% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.14% | $374.22 | $515.39 | $705.50 |
| 8.14% | $303.41 | $413.90 | — |
| 9.14% | $255.56 | $345.50 | — |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.44 | 7.11% | $519.84 |
| Peer beta | 0.52 | 7.47% | $477.41 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.67 | 8.14% | $413.90 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $19.85 |
| Year 1 | 4.76% | $20.79 |
| Year 2 | 4.23% | $21.67 |
| Year 3 | 3.86% | $22.51 |
| Year 4 | 3.60% | $23.32 |
| Year 5 | 3.42% | $24.12 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $24.12 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 17.04× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $410.95 |
| Discounted at 8.14% over 5 years: ÷ 1.4792 | $277.82 |
We publish no single base value for Willis Towers Watson. Our valuation methods put it between $277.82 and $413.90 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $247.19 and a 10% chance it is above $479.63 in a year; a 57% chance it is higher than today's $328.78, from 25.73% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 8.14% a year.
At $328.78 the price implies free cash flow growing 1.0% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 4.8%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $288.61 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $296.26 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $315.49 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $325.01 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $324.42 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $328.86 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $328.78 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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