We publish no single base value for Wynn Resorts. Our valuation methods put it between $40.91 and $41.84 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $40.91 | -50.7% | free cash flow $515.82m, growth -7.9% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 9.63%; stress floor $40.74 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $41.84 | -49.6% | earnings per share $3.79 valued at 19.88× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.96 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.25) |
| Peer beta | 1.12 (median of 46 S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.00 (74% own, 26% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.00 (0.67 × 1.00 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 9.63% |
Free cash flow grows -7.90% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $515.82m | — | — |
| Year 1 | -7.90% | $475.07m | 0.9122 | $433.34m |
| Year 2 | -7.90% | $437.54m | 0.8320 | $364.05m |
| Year 3 | -7.90% | $402.97m | 0.7589 | $305.84m |
| Year 4 | -7.90% | $371.14m | 0.6923 | $256.93m |
| Year 5 | -7.90% | $341.82m | 0.6315 | $215.85m |
| Year 6 | -6.08% | $321.02m | 0.5760 | $184.91m |
| Year 7 | -4.27% | $307.33m | 0.5254 | $161.47m |
| Year 8 | -2.45% | $299.80m | 0.4793 | $143.68m |
| Year 9 | -0.63% | $297.90m | 0.4372 | $130.23m |
| Year 10 | 1.18% | $301.42m | 0.3988 | $120.19m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (9.63% − 3%) | $4.68bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $1.87bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $2.32bn |
| Total present value | $4.18bn |
| Shares outstanding | 102.27m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $40.91 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -12.9% | Growth -7.9% | Growth -2.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.63% | $34.63 | $47.13 | $64.21 |
| 9.63% | $30.43 | $40.91 | $55.13 |
| 10.63% | $27.28 | $36.28 | $48.40 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.96 | 9.45% | $41.89 |
| Peer beta | 1.12 | 10.17% | $38.25 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.00 | 9.63% | $40.91 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $3.79 |
| Year 1 | -7.90% | $3.49 |
| Year 2 | -4.09% | $3.35 |
| Year 3 | -1.61% | $3.30 |
| Year 4 | 0.01% | $3.30 |
| Year 5 | 1.05% | $3.33 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $3.33 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 19.88× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $66.25 |
| Discounted at 9.63% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5836 | $41.84 |
We publish no single base value for Wynn Resorts. Our valuation methods put it between $40.91 and $41.84 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $55.06 and a 10% chance it is above $133.95 in a year; a 54% chance it is higher than today's $83.02, from 34.51% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.63% a year.
At $83.02 the price implies free cash flow growing 4.0% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown -7.9%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $75.88 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $75.15 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $75.60 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $72.73 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $74.66 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $83.11 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $83.02 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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