On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for ExxonMobil is $200.86 a share, 18.3% above its $169.78 close; 1 of 1 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | — | — | 3.65x spot |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $200.86 | +18.3% | earnings per share $13.66 valued at 12.54× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $13.66 |
| Year 1 | 19.48% | $16.32 |
| Year 2 | 13.71% | $18.56 |
| Year 3 | 9.96% | $20.41 |
| Year 4 | 7.53% | $21.95 |
| Year 5 | 5.94% | $23.25 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $23.25 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 12.54× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $291.60 |
| Discounted at 7.74% over 5 years: ÷ 1.4517 | $200.86 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $200.86 |
One method is kept, so the base value is its value: $200.86
Base value $200.86 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $125.93 and a 10% chance it is above $248.22 in a year; a 56% chance it is higher than today's $169.78, from 26.34% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 7.74% a year.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $164.01 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $168.94 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $178.98 | $150.86 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $183.21 | $155.99 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $187.25 | $199.66 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $165.87 | $201.79 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $169.78 | $200.86 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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