On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for Block, Inc. is $113.36 a share, 37.8% above its $82.26 close; 1 of 1 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $113.36 | +37.8% | free cash flow $3.45bn, growth 6.98% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 9.63%; plus net cash $2.90 a share; stress floor $71.82 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | — | — | no exit multiple: the five-year median of 29.2x is 1.9x the 15.3x this name trades at today (limit 1.5x) — the market has re-rated the name, so its own history prices a business it is no longer paid for. The forward PE is not a substitute: it is today's price divided by earnings, and an anchor built from it can only restate the price |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 2.57 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.34) |
| Peer beta | 0.84 (median of 8 S&P 500 Transaction & Payment Processing Services companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.00 (9% own, 91% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.00 (0.67 × 1.00 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 9.63% |
Free cash flow grows 6.98% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $3.45bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 6.98% | $3.69bn | 0.9122 | $3.37bn |
| Year 2 | 6.98% | $3.95bn | 0.8320 | $3.29bn |
| Year 3 | 6.98% | $4.23bn | 0.7589 | $3.21bn |
| Year 4 | 6.98% | $4.52bn | 0.6923 | $3.13bn |
| Year 5 | 6.98% | $4.84bn | 0.6315 | $3.06bn |
| Year 6 | 6.32% | $5.14bn | 0.5760 | $2.96bn |
| Year 7 | 5.65% | $5.44bn | 0.5254 | $2.86bn |
| Year 8 | 4.99% | $5.71bn | 0.4793 | $2.73bn |
| Year 9 | 4.33% | $5.95bn | 0.4372 | $2.60bn |
| Year 10 | 3.66% | $6.17bn | 0.3988 | $2.46bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (9.63% − 3%) | $95.88bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $38.23bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $29.67bn |
| Total present value | $67.91bn |
| Shares outstanding | 614.78m |
| Cash flows per share = total ÷ shares | $110.46 |
| Plus net cash per share | $2.90 |
| Value per share | $113.36 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 1.98% | Growth 6.98% | Growth 11.98% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.63% | $99.45 | — | $179.62 |
| 9.63% | $85.03 | $113.36 | $150.95 |
| 10.63% | $74.39 | $98.29 | — |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 2.57 | 16.70% | $54.40 |
| Peer beta | 0.84 | 8.91% | — |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.00 | 9.63% | $113.36 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $113.36 |
One method is kept, so the base value is its value: $113.36
Base value $113.36 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $45.71 and a 10% chance it is above $145.55 in a year; a 49% chance it is higher than today's $82.26, from 44.96% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.63% a year.
At $82.26 the price implies free cash flow growing 1.4% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 7.0%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $74.33 | $50.16 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $77.24 | $50.35 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $77.89 | $125.80 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $76.46 | $127.38 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $76.22 | $125.27 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $85.48 | $118.11 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $82.26 | $113.36 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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