We publish no single base value for Zebra Technologies. Our valuation methods put it between $391.96 and $559.54 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $559.54 | +76.1% | free cash flow $988.00m, growth 16.86% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 11.3%; stress floor $277.04 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $391.96 | +23.3% | earnings per share $21.20 valued at 19.06× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.61 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.23) |
| Peer beta | 1.32 (median of 73 S&P 500 Information Technology companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.56 (82% own, 18% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.37 (0.67 × 1.56 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 11.30% |
Free cash flow grows 16.86% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $988.00m | — | — |
| Year 1 | 16.86% | $1.15bn | 0.8985 | $1.04bn |
| Year 2 | 16.86% | $1.35bn | 0.8073 | $1.09bn |
| Year 3 | 16.86% | $1.58bn | 0.7254 | $1.14bn |
| Year 4 | 16.86% | $1.84bn | 0.6518 | $1.20bn |
| Year 5 | 16.86% | $2.15bn | 0.5856 | $1.26bn |
| Year 6 | 14.55% | $2.47bn | 0.5262 | $1.30bn |
| Year 7 | 12.24% | $2.77bn | 0.4728 | $1.31bn |
| Year 8 | 9.93% | $3.04bn | 0.4248 | $1.29bn |
| Year 9 | 7.62% | $3.28bn | 0.3817 | $1.25bn |
| Year 10 | 5.31% | $3.45bn | 0.3430 | $1.18bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (11.30% − 3%) | $42.83bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $14.69bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $12.06bn |
| Total present value | $26.75bn |
| Shares outstanding | 47.81m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $559.54 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 11.86% | Growth 16.86% | Growth 21.86% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10.30% | — | $647.92 | $857.49 |
| 11.30% | — | $559.54 | $736.79 |
| 12.30% | — | $490.68 | $642.94 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.61 | 12.38% | $485.82 |
| Peer beta | 1.32 | 11.07% | $577.46 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.37 | 11.30% | $559.54 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $21.20 |
| Year 1 | 16.86% | $24.77 |
| Year 2 | 12.70% | $27.92 |
| Year 3 | 9.79% | $30.65 |
| Year 4 | 7.75% | $33.03 |
| Year 5 | 6.33% | $35.12 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $35.12 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 19.06× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $669.30 |
| Discounted at 11.30% over 5 years: ÷ 1.7076 | $391.96 |
We publish no single base value for Zebra Technologies. Our valuation methods put it between $391.96 and $559.54 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $221.29 and a 10% chance it is above $511.86 in a year; a 57% chance it is higher than today's $317.83, from 32.55% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 11.3% a year.
At $317.83 the price implies free cash flow growing 6.8% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 16.9%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $375.86 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $387.18 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $369.01 | $367.12 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $386.45 | $368.51 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $361.26 | $368.13 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $322.02 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $317.83 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
Run a full Desk Run on ZBRA · Zebra Technologies company page · Call and put prices