We publish no single base value for Cincinnati Financial. Our valuation methods put it between $74.71 and $117.26 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $117.26 | -38.4% | free cash flow $3.08bn, growth -18.2% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 7.56%; plus net cash $2.35 a share; stress floor $153.47 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $74.71 | -60.7% | earnings per share $9.46 valued at 18.17× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.48 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.20) |
| Peer beta | 0.22 (median of 7 S&P 500 Property & Casualty Insurance companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.31 (32% own, 68% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.54 (0.67 × 0.31 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 7.56% |
Free cash flow grows -18.20% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $3.08bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | -18.20% | $2.52bn | 0.9297 | $2.34bn |
| Year 2 | -18.20% | $2.06bn | 0.8644 | $1.78bn |
| Year 3 | -18.20% | $1.68bn | 0.8036 | $1.35bn |
| Year 4 | -18.20% | $1.38bn | 0.7471 | $1.03bn |
| Year 5 | -18.20% | $1.13bn | 0.6946 | $782.53m |
| Year 6 | -14.67% | $961.33m | 0.6458 | $620.82m |
| Year 7 | -11.13% | $854.30m | 0.6004 | $512.93m |
| Year 8 | -7.60% | $789.37m | 0.5582 | $440.63m |
| Year 9 | -4.07% | $757.27m | 0.5190 | $393.00m |
| Year 10 | -0.53% | $753.23m | 0.4825 | $363.43m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (7.56% − 3%) | $17.01bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $8.21bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $9.61bn |
| Total present value | $17.82bn |
| Shares outstanding | 155.10m |
| Cash flows per share = total ÷ shares | $114.91 |
| Plus net cash per share | $2.35 |
| Value per share | $117.26 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -23.2% | Growth -18.2% | Growth -13.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.56% | $101.38 | $140.99 | $196.97 |
| 7.56% | $86.12 | $117.26 | $160.78 |
| 8.56% | $76.12 | $101.81 | $137.36 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.48 | 7.29% | $122.61 |
| Peer beta | 0.22 | 6.12% | $156.10 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.54 | 7.56% | $117.26 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $9.46 |
| Year 1 | -18.20% | $7.74 |
| Year 2 | -11.84% | $6.82 |
| Year 3 | -7.39% | $6.32 |
| Year 4 | -4.27% | $6.05 |
| Year 5 | -2.09% | $5.92 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $5.92 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 18.17× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $107.56 |
| Discounted at 7.56% over 5 years: ÷ 1.4396 | $74.71 |
We publish no single base value for Cincinnati Financial. Our valuation methods put it between $74.71 and $117.26 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $159.05 and a 10% chance it is above $255.31 in a year; a 62% chance it is higher than today's $190.31, from 18.37% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 7.56% a year.
At $190.31 the price implies free cash flow growing -10.6% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown -18.2%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $161.95 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $163.39 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $171.25 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $176.30 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $181.19 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $185.48 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $190.31 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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