We publish no single base value for Newmont. Our valuation methods put it between $177.11 and $352.88 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $352.88 | +213.3% | free cash flow $10.07bn, growth 15.2% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 8.91%; plus net cash $7.08 a share; stress floor $169.48 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $177.11 | +57.2% | earnings per share $9.18 valued at 18.03× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.56 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.33) |
| Peer beta | 0.90 (median of 23 S&P 500 Materials companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.76 (40% own, 60% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.84 (0.67 × 0.76 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 8.91% |
Free cash flow grows 15.20% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $10.07bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 15.20% | $11.61bn | 0.9182 | $10.66bn |
| Year 2 | 15.20% | $13.37bn | 0.8431 | $11.27bn |
| Year 3 | 15.20% | $15.40bn | 0.7741 | $11.92bn |
| Year 4 | 15.20% | $17.74bn | 0.7108 | $12.61bn |
| Year 5 | 15.20% | $20.44bn | 0.6526 | $13.34bn |
| Year 6 | 13.17% | $23.13bn | 0.5992 | $13.86bn |
| Year 7 | 11.13% | $25.71bn | 0.5502 | $14.14bn |
| Year 8 | 9.10% | $28.04bn | 0.5052 | $14.17bn |
| Year 9 | 7.07% | $30.03bn | 0.4639 | $13.93bn |
| Year 10 | 5.03% | $31.54bn | 0.4259 | $13.43bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (8.91% − 3%) | $549.65bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $234.10bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $129.33bn |
| Total present value | $363.43bn |
| Shares outstanding | 1.05bn |
| Cash flows per share = total ÷ shares | $345.80 |
| Plus net cash per share | $7.08 |
| Value per share | $352.88 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 10.2% | Growth 15.2% | Growth 20.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.91% | $320.60 | $430.88 | $576.24 |
| 8.91% | — | $352.88 | $468.91 |
| 9.91% | — | $297.76 | $393.18 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.56 | 7.65% | $456.73 |
| Peer beta | 0.90 | 9.18% | $336.21 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.84 | 8.91% | $352.88 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $9.18 |
| Year 1 | 15.20% | $10.57 |
| Year 2 | 12.15% | $11.85 |
| Year 3 | 9.86% | $13.02 |
| Year 4 | 8.15% | $14.09 |
| Year 5 | 6.86% | $15.05 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $15.05 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 18.03× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $271.38 |
| Discounted at 8.91% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5323 | $177.11 |
We publish no single base value for Newmont. Our valuation methods put it between $177.11 and $352.88 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $62.87 and a 10% chance it is above $196.77 in a year; a 49% chance it is higher than today's $112.64, from 44.29% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 8.91% a year.
At $112.64 the price implies free cash flow growing -4.5% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 15.2%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $115.56 | $287.84 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $117.84 | $228.73 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $118.60 | $334.35 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $108.87 | $354.52 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $106.61 | $365.99 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $120.91 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $112.64 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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